They tried to previously to settle in Roanoke and that didn't work so they tried again. When they got their they found the bones of one man. Also the fort destroyed. Then they started the colony.
They started off good and Elinor had the first baby born in North America. They needed more supplies so they sent John White to get more supplies.
After John White leaves I think scenario 3. There was a drought and that leaves farming to be bad so they go to Croatoan to find a better place to live. Since there was a drought there were had waves and they could have a been lost at sea and gone to a different island.