The desirable outcome is to have 2 marbles of the same color and the possible number of outcomes is 6 marbles.
Then you divide 2 by 6 to find the theoretical probability. 2/6 is 1/3 simplified. SO, the theoretical probability of winning a prize at a single try is 1/3.
The theoretical probability is found by dividing the number of desired outcomes by the number of total possible outcomes.
To see how many matches you could possibly win you find 1/3 of 30 since that is the theoretical probability. 1/3 of 30 is 10, so 10 games were expected to be won but 13 matches were won.
3 more games than expected were won but, it was close to the games that I predicted were to be won.
The player has a better chance of winning at the spinner game.
This is because you can land on gold 4 times out of the 9 sections. 4/9 is 44%. The probability for winning at the other game is 33%. So, the percent of winning on this game is higher than the other game.