Math Project (Bayes Rule) Part 2


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  • Only a small amount of people (4 in 400) actually have breast cancer
  • In addition, our tests are pretty inaccurate at this point in time
  • In fact, 1 out of every 4 tests is wrong
  • So of the 396 who don't actually have breast cancer, 1 in 4 (99 people) will get an inaccurate test saying they do
  • And even though there's a high (3 in 4) chance the one person who does have breast can will get a true positive, ...
  • ... It's more likely you are part of the 99 people who got a false positive than one of the 4 people who was correctly diagnosed
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